Scouting Report | Syracuse
Dino Babers was firmly planted on the hot seat coming into the 2022 season. A 6-1 start has quieted that talk for now and this team looks like the best one he’s had since 2018.
That group went 10-3 and this one could win 10 games again. They’ll likely get there if they can beat Notre Dame at home this Saturday.
Typically teams with their record are really good on one side of the ball and maybe average or below on the other side. Syracuse is simply good in every phase. They aren’t elite in any one area. They are just…good.
Ranked 24th in FEI, this is the most top-level ACC talent that Babers has had since he started coaching there in 2016.
(Note: some of their overall numbers have been boosted by playing FCS Wagner so that is why I’m using vs FBS competition so frequently)
Injuries
Syracuse has lost DL Terry Lockett, linebacker Stefon Thompson, fullback Chris Elmore, and wide receiver Isaiah Jones for the season. They were all starters.
CB Garrett Williams did not play against Clemson and he’s a key player for them. He was a gametime decision, though, so the expectation is that he will be back for this game.
Offense
Former Virginia offensive coordinator Robert Anae is now at Syracuse and the offense has improved exponentially from where they were last season with him running things.
They were 91st in yards per play vs FBS competition last season and have improved to 56th this year. They are currently 32nd in EPA per play, 41st in points per drive, and ranked 39th in FEI.
Expected Strengths
RB Sean Tucker is one of the best backs in college football. He averages 130 yards from scrimmage per game. He has 29 catches and he’s averaging 5.41 yards per carry. Tucker is a huge reason why they are 12th in opportunity rate.
He’s going to finish with another big season, but was even better last year.
Defenses have focused on stopping him and that might have led to a drop for the offense, but QB Garrett Shrader might be the most improved player in the Power 5. He’s shown he is more than just a threat in the running game.
He’s 28th in ESPN’s QBR after being 68th last season. He’s 16th in pass efficiency and averaging 9.0 yards per attempt. PFF has him graded as the 12 best passer in the country.
He’s still dangerous as a runner, though. He’s big (6’4” 228), is tough to tackle, and is a long strider that moves a lot faster than you’d expect. Shrader has 81 rushing attempts this season and is averaging 5.9 YPC. He previously played wide receiver at Mississippi State. While leaning on Shrader against Clemson, over 50% of Syracuse’s rushes went for 5-yards or more.
Clemson might not be what they have been on defense, but that kind of success running against them is notable.
Tucker, Shrader, and WR Oronde Gadsden II form the best triplet combination on offense in the ACC this season. The son of a former Miami Dolphins receiver, Gadson is a matchup problem with his size (6’5” 216). He’s caught 7 of 10 on contested targets and is one of the best receivers in the ACC.
LT Matthew Bergeron is a potential early-round NFL prospect. He’s a very good athlete for his size. His matchup with Isaiah Foskey will be one to watch.
They lean on those top players and that’s what makes it a good offense.
Potential Weaknesses
They aren’t very explosive. They are 118th in plays of 30-yards or more vs FBS competition. Tucker can be exceptional and Shrader is no slouch, so why are they averaging 3.91 YPC vs FBS competition? They ran for under 4.0 YPC vs UCONN, UVa, and Purdue. Those teams all play solid run defense, but they certainly aren’t dominant groups.
They are allowing 3 sacks per game vs FBS competition and are 109th in the country in sack rate/ Virginia and Clemson had 6 and 5 against them respectively. Shrader has been pressured on 37% of drop backs vs FBS competition and his pocket awareness can be questionable at times. PFF has him 14th in the country in percentage of pressure that is on him (25.9%).
Shrader is 87th in pass efficiency on 3rd down. They don’t protect well in obvious passing situations and if they force him to use his arm to beat them in those scenarios, they’ll be in pretty good shape.
Bergeron had some issues vs the bull rush against Clemson. He’s a bit light in his pass set and can get puck back on his heels.
RT Dakota Davis gave up four pressures vs Purdue and had a bad day against Clemson as well. He has below average lateral mobility.
Scheme
Anae’s Virginia offense was different from this one. They had more skill talent to spread the ball around too and this offense is pretty heavily focused on those top three guys.
Against Clemson those three had 35 runs/receptions. The rest of the team had 12.
Zone read is a staple for them, but play-action off of it isn’t as common. Only 13.5% of drop backs for Shrader this year have involved some kind of play-action fake.
They only average 67.7 plays per game (91st). It shows how things have changed drastically from when Babers was previously in control of the offense. That 2018 team averaged 84.3 per game (2nd). They are 89th in pace of play on offense.
They will line up Tucker out wide to isolate him against a linebacker. This isn’t a spot where Notre Dame wants JD Bertrand covering him man to man.
Gadsden is also a tough matchup that they move around, but he’s in the slot 76.8% of the time. He’s technically listed as a tight end, but he’s a big receiver.
The Irish will see some 21 personnel from the Orange, but with more of a traditional fullback.
They use motion with receivers to help add in an extra lead blocker in the run game.
Key Players
RB Sean Tucker - There’s more focus on stopping him this year, but he’s still been very good in just about every category. He averaged 4.11 yards after contact last season.
QB Garrett Shrader - A transfer from Mississippi State, he is always looking to make a play and rarely throws the ball away. He has only done it four times in 2022.
WR Oronde Gadsden II - He has almost double the amount of targets of any other receiver on the team.
LT Matthew Bergeron - He’s only allowed four pressures all season.
Key for Notre Dame
Make the other guys beat you
Clemson had a plan for Tucker and took him away on those zone read runs. He only had five carries, which means they’ll probably call more plays without a read in this game. They can’t let him go off just like they can’t let Gadsden beat them on big plays down the field.
That might mean putting the ball in Shrader’s hands more as a runner, but limiting those other two puts all the weight on him to beat you.
Defense
One of the best things Babers has done is bring in Tony White to be his defensive coordinator. The defense has held steady for them when the offense hasn’t been great.
They are 45th in EPA per play, 22nd in YPP vs FBS competition, 28th in points per drive, and 39th in FEI. It’s a fast defense that flies to the football.
No one has scored more than 29 points on them.
Expected Strengths
They may not have a single dominant pass rusher, but they are 13th in sack rate because they have a bunch of good ones in their front six. They are an effective blitzing team and have a good understanding of fit with the rush.
They play really sound football on the backend. They are 4th in PFF’s coverage grade, 22nd in pass efficiency defense vs FBS competition, and they’ve only given up nine plays of 20-yards or more through the air (1st).
Clemson managed only one against them.
The red zone defense has been great. Opponents score touchdowns only 50% when they get inside the 20.
LB Mikel Jones, CB Garrett Williams, and CB Darian Chestnut are All-ACC level players. LB Marlowe Wax isn’t far off either. There’s a number of guys who are likely going to end up playing on Sundays.
Potential Weaknesses
The run defense hasn’t been good. They are 110th in EPA per rush, 116th in opportunity rate, and 119th in stuff rate. They are undersized and can get caught taking risks that open up running lanes.
Clemson turned the game against them when they stuck with running the football towards the end of the 3rd quarter. They were down 21-10 and ended up scoring 17 straight points while keeping it on the ground. They ran it 22 times and passed it six. They averaged 6.4 YPC.
Scheme
White is from the Rocky Long coaching tree with the 3-3-5 as the base defense. It’s really just a mashup of movement with the second and third level defenders.
Expect to see a lot of stunts, zone pressures, and overloading to one side on any given down. It’s unpredictable.
Key Players
CB Garrett Williams - He knows how to find the football and can match up in press coverage.
CB Duce Chestnut - A very good all-around corner who has a pick six this season.
LB Mikel Jones - An elite blitzer. PFF has him with the second best pass rush grade for a linebacker in the country.
LB Marlowe Wax - Leads their team in tackles for loss, havoc plays, and has two forced fumbles.
Key for Notre Dame
Stay on schedule
Success running on 1st down is going to be incredibly important in this game. If Notre Dame gets stuck in obvious passing situations, it plays into the strength of their defense. If the Irish don’t have negative runs and stay patient, they will move the football on the ground.
Special Teams
K Andre Szymt is there for his 845th year. He’s a former Lou Groza award winner who had taken a dip with his accuracy, but he’s 11 of 12 on field goals this season.
P Maximilian Von Marburg is a bad guy in a Bond film and their punter. He averages 42.5 yards per punt.
The blocked an extra point against Purdue that proved critical in them winning that game.
Overview
They are 6-1 for a reason. This is a pretty good football team. It’s a pretty good football team that I believe Notre Dame matches up pretty well with. Notre Dame has to bottle up Tucker and not let Shrader go off as a runner, but what the Irish are best at on offense is what Syracuse isn’t the best at.
They say styles make fights and it all makes for an interesting match up.
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