6 Thoughts on a Thursday
We’re ⅔ of the way into the season and by now we are well aware of the identity of Notre Dame’s offense.
They are a running team. They run the ball 60.1% of the time. In the last three games, when Drew Pyne struggled as a passer, they ran it 64% of the time.
It’s more than them just being a team that runs the ball. They need to run the ball.
Tommy Rees knows that. Everyone on the team knows that. Clemson definitely knows that. They’re preparing for a physical game and if they weren’t, they’d be negligent as a coaching staff.
Knowing that they’re going to run is one thing. Knowing what they’re going to run is another and that’s one thing that has been consistent with Rees. Every team is game plan specific to a certain extent with their offense, but Notre Dame doesn’t just rely on a few base runs.
One week they’ll run more Power or Counter Misdirection. Next they might run more Split Zone or Duo. They’ll play heavy like they did against Syracuse (54.7% of plays with multiple tight ends) or they’ll play 11 or 21 personnel with just Michael Mayer on the field.
After the Cal and North Carolina games, I would have thought Rees would lean into playing with two backs on the field together way more often than he has since. They generated explosive plays doing that in those games on less than a dozen snaps. Instead they have mixed things up a lot more.
I don’t think we’ll see nearly as much 12 and 13 personnel this week as we did against Syracuse. I don’t know what Rees has in his bag when it comes to dipping back into stuff they ran earlier this year or things that they haven’t shown yet.
He knows what he has and doesn’t have at quarterback. Clemson surely recognizes that as well so they’ll be trying to do as much as possible to stop the run and force Pyne to throw more than Notre Dame wants him to.
How do you run on a team that knows what’s coming when that team has the front seven talent Clemson has? You have to add in as many wrinkles as you can to not be too predictable. What those wrinkles are from Rees might end up being the biggest factor in Notre Dame having success on offense this Saturday.
2. It’s really difficult to compare this current Notre Dame team to any one in recent memory. When comparing some of the numbers from Drew Pyne and Brandon Wimbush, it did make me think of the 2017 team because that offense also had limitations because of the quarterback.
The defenses are pretty comparable. This one is 27th in points per drive. They were 21st in 2017. This defense is 22nd in DF+. They were 17th in 2017.
The obvious difference was that Wimbush brought a different dynamic as a runner and that was part of what made them one of the more explosive offenses in college football (they were 6th in plays of 30-yards or more). This Irish offense is 74th.
That leads to the unanswerable question of what this offense could have been with Tyler Buchner. They would have had a more significant presence with him as a runner and I think he would have opened up more opportunities for the backs as well with teams worrying about Buchner. How he would have progressed as a passer is anyone’s guess.
There’s too much unknown with Buchner to know everything that Notre Dame would be missing, but I wish we got to see it. I’m confident that we’d have seen more than eight runs of 20-yards or more, though.
3. Notre Dame doesn’t have an offense that can get behind the sticks. They can’t afford to be in 3rd and long because Pyne isn’t someone they can rely on to convert in those situations (he’s outside of the top-100 in 3rd down pass efficiency).
They’ve still managed to be pretty decent at converting on 3rd down (42%) because they aren’t getting behind the sticks often. The Havoc rate against them is 11.3% and that’s outstanding. They’re 11th in the country in tackles for loss allowed per game.
They’re playing a Clemson defense that is elite at creating havoc. Their rate is 22.7% and the defensive line isn’t just great at disrupting the running game. They have batted down 13 passes as well. A lot of that stems from teams trying to get the ball out quickly to nullify the pass rush, which I expect Notre Dame to do as well when they do throw the football.
When this game is over, the Havoc rate for Clemson is going to say a lot about the outcome of this game.
If it’s a lot closer to Notre Dame’s number, then the Irish can win the game. If it’s closer to Clemson’s average, then it gets very difficult to see a path for the Irish to win.
4. I really recommend everyone checking out my ISD scouting report on Clemson from earlier this week if you haven’t already. Notre Dame fans are keenly aware of the strengths and weaknesses of the Irish, but I’m not so sure that everyone knows that this isn’t the typical Clemson juggernaut that they had during a dominant six year run.
From 2015-2020 they were ranked fourth or higher in F+. They made the College Football Playoff every year. They might make it again this year, but this team is 14th in F+ currently and whether it’s analytics or eye-test or however you judge a team, they aren’t in the same class they used to be.
It’s interesting because everything is set up for them to get back to that level, even after a down year in 2021. This was supposed to be the year that every program who had them on the schedule was going to dread facing them.
The 2020 recruiting class they signed, which featured 10 top-100 prospects, was going to make them even more talented on paper than they’ve ever been. It seemed like a group that would win at least one national championship, if not multiple.
That hasn’t happened and no matter what happens with them in the regular season, it’s not likely going to happen once they start facing better teams in the postseason. As for next year, they could lose DT Bryan Bresee, DE Myles Murphy, and LB Trenton Simpson early to the NFL and they will lose DT Tyler Davis, DE Xavier Thomas, DE KJ Henry, and LT Jordan McFadden as well.
There will be other players from that class who are still around in 2023 and even 2024, but the 5-stars they signed on defense from that class won’t be. I know they’re 8-0 at the moment and they will be favored to run the table and win the ACC. They didn’t sign that class and think they were going to win the ACC like they always do, though. They signed that class and were thinking about winning more championships.
I don’t see it for them.
5. I guess there was some talk on the Cover 3 podcast this week about how Notre Dame played to keep it close against Ohio State and somehow that is a bad thing or means bad things for them against Clemson.
I can’t even begin to get into why I think that take is ridiculous. It looks even more nonsensical when you realize the limitations of this Notre Dame team and how excellent Ohio State has been on both sides of the ball.
The Irish were supposed to get into a shootout with a team that is going to win playing that way 100 times out of 100? Why would anyone choose to do that against Ohio State? Quick, someone Quantum Leap into Bill Belichick’s body so they can fix that first Super Bowl win and make the Patriots get in a shootout vs the Greatest Show on Turf!
As we get further away from that opening week the coaching job Notre Dame did looks better and better in my opinion. My guy Greg Flammang pointed out on Twitter why the defense deserves way more credit for that game than they’ve gotten as well.
Notre Dame coached that game to keep it close and if they played well enough to do so. If they got a blocked punt or a turnover or two mixed in, that was going to be the formula for them to win it based on where the offense was at that time and the personnel they have.
I don’t know if Notre Dame’s defense is going to do enough to carry the Irish to a win if the offense doesn’t deliver, but I feel confident that they’re going to have a good game plan and play well against Clemson. This Clemson offense isn’t in the same tier as Ohio State either.
It would almost be surprising if Notre Dame didn’t hold them to their lowest point total or yards per play this season because that’s what the Irish have done against good offenses this fall.
6. It’s no secret that Notre Dame needs to be able to produce explosive plays to beat Clemson. They won’t be able to rely on grinding out double digit drives on too many occasions against this defense.
They also can’t get away from who they are. If Notre Dame tries to go shot for shot with Clemson in order to get those plays, they’re going to lose. Probably by a lot. They don’t have the skill talent to do that.
It’s not going to be exactly like when they played Ohio State, but it’s not going to stray too far away from that because they haven’t strayed away from that all season. It’s going to be about being the more physical team, dominating the field position battle, and winning the time of possession.
The last part might seem overrated, but it matters for this Irish team. They are 5-0 when they win the time of possession this season. They are 0-3 when they don’t.
Control the game. Win the game. Maybe it’s not that simple, but I’m certain that Notre Dame isn’t winning the game if they don’t win the TOP.
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