6 Thoughts on a Thursday

11 years is a long time and it feels like forever when thinking back to Notre Dame’s 2012 season.

The Irish had 14 players drafted from that team in the 2013 and 2014 NFL Drafts and the only player who is still in the league is Zack Martin. (Not just playing, but thriving. Pay the man what he deserves, Jerry)

I wish I kept my old Phil Steele preview magazine from that year to see what was being written about that particular team. There was not national championship hype before that season and I remember them being unranked to start the season.  I definitely don’t remember anyone thinking they were loaded with talent.

The focus seemed to be more about the questions heading into the season at quarterback, what they were going to do to replace Michael Floyd at receiver, and the fact that they were starting a converted running back at corner who also happened to be a true freshman. All of that and Aaron Lynch transferring in the spring weren’t setting up high expectations for the fall.

We know how it played out. They surpassed what anyone thought they could be. It went down that way because the returning elite players (Martin, Manti Te’o, Tyler Eifert) were fantastic and they had several others play at a high-level who hadn’t yet proven they could do it before that season. Players like Theo Riddick, Chris Watt, Kapron Lewis-Moore, Zeke Motta, Prince Shembo, Bennett Jackson, and TJ Jones were critical pieces to the success of that squad.

Getting star turns from young defensive linemen Louis Nix and Stephon Tuitt might have been the biggest reasons why that defense went from good to great (3rd in DF+, the combined FEI and SP+ rankings).

I think everyone knew that Martin, Te’o, and Eifert were legitimate NFL prospects headed into 2012. Watt probably would have been mentioned as well and Tuitt was a no-brainer NFL prospect, but he hadn’t become a starter yet. With the rest of those players, there was a lot of uncertain projection. They needed to show that they were and then did.

Maybe this sounds like this is going in the direction of “Can the 2023 team surprise people like the 2012 team did?”. That’s not where this is headed. This is more of me looking at the top NFL prospects on Notre Dame’s roster and realizing that there are similarities in that respect to the 2012 team.

Joe Alt, Blake Fisher, Sam Hartman, Audric Estime, Cam Hart, and the not-yet-draft-eligible Benjamin Morrison are the top prospects for the next level on this current team. (Top is probably a stretch for Hartman, but I think he’ll get a Senior Bowl invite)

After that, there’s a whole lot of players who would be lumped in with that Lewis-Moore, Motta, Shembo, and Riddick group and more than a handful who I would put in the Nix/Tuitt group.

Rylie Mills, Javontae Jean-Baptiste, and Jordan Botelho are defensive linemen with Sunday traits, but they need to have the production to match up with the projection. The same can be said for Jayden Thomas and Mitchell Evans on offense. There’s also a number of individuals who it would be tough to definitively label them NFL prospects today, but who certainly appear to be on their way.

There’s a number of first and second year players who I believe have exciting futures and we’ll be talking about them as difference-makers one day, but we’ll see if that is this fall or heading into 2024.

I’ve been saying that Notre Dame is better set up for 2024 and beyond for a while and I still believe that to be the case. I think fans would be a lot more comfortable thinking about a roster that had double digit known NFL Draft prospects for next spring rather than having so many players who could play their way into being prospects this season.

I guess it could be the eternal optimism that pervades fall camp, but I do think there’s a strong possibility for the Irish to be seen as much more talented in a few months compared to how they are viewed today. It’s probably too much to expect a 2012 surprise will happen. I don’t think it’s too much to envision a group that produces eight NFL Draft picks and if that’s how it plays out, it means the team is going to have a very good season.

2. That’s nowhere close to 20 NFL Draft picks. That’s the number Jim Harbaugh thinks will be drafted from Michigan after this year.

That’s both ridiculous and kind of hilarious because that would mean that the team that lost to TCU in the College Football Playoff last season had close to 30 NFL Draft picks on the roster (they had nine drafted in the spring). It would arguably make that team the most talented one in the history of college football, which nope, they were definitely not.

It’s not to say that Michigan doesn’t have a ton of talent this fall. They do. Comparing it to previous champions in the CFP era, they check most boxes.

The offensive line should once again be a Joe Moore Award finalist and Zak Zinter is considered as one of the top interior line prospects for next year’s NFL Draft. That box is checked.

For skill talent, do they have at least three who will be drafted at RB, TE, and WR? Both backs are projected to be high picks and they have a couple of receivers and a tight end who could end up being selected.

Champions have had at least one skill player selected in the first round so Blake Corum or Donovan Edwards has to be that guy for them.

From my “championship caliber” piece a few months ago:

Every single team has had at least one first round pick (or projected first round pick in the case of Georgia tight end Brock Bowers) at one of those three positions and the average number of skill position players on those teams who have gone in the first two rounds in the NFL Draft is 2.4.

They pretty much need both of those backs to be high picks and it could happen.

They need JJ McCarthy to make a jump at quarterback and he has that kind of talent.

Do they have enough on the D-line?

Every single champion has had at least three future NFL Draft picks playing on their defensive line.

That’s probably a yes.

Do they have a linebacker who is going to be drafted in the first three rounds? Junior Colson looks like a yes.

What about at defensive back?

The only champion with less than three future NFL picks at defensive back was, you guessed it, 2016 Clemson. They had one.

They have NFL players in the secondary. Harbaugh can check that box off too.

As much as Notre Dame fans might not want to read it, Michigan has built a team that has the kind of talent to potentially win a championship. It’s not just about them playing an easy schedule. Harbaugh deserves credit for the program he has built and the way they have identified and developed talent. They have had 32 players selected in the last four NFL Drafts. 15 of them were ranked as 3-stars or lower as recruits and two more former 3-stars are likely to be drafted next year.

Notre Dame had six players who were ranked as 3-stars or lower end up being drafted over the same time period and Michigan has had more talented teams the the Irish the last two seasons.

Proclaiming that Michgian will have 20 players drafted and even suggesting that they might have seven offensive lineman drafted is pretty ludicrous. It’s not crazy to say that they are one of the most talented teams in the country, though.

I don’t think they will win a championship and there is no way I’d ever pick them in a match up against Georgia. They played them two years ago in the CFP and rushed for 3.37 yards per carry and 91 total yards. If Michigan can’t run the ball, they aren’t going to beat Georgia and pretty much no one has run the ball on Georgia the last four years.

Since 2019 only four teams averaged more than 4.0 YPC in a game against them and only one team rushed for more than 150 total yards. Playing bully ball against Ohio State isn’t the same thing as doing it against UGA.

This is also why being good at running the football can’t be the sole identity of a championship offense. Eventually you’re going to run into a defense where you have to pass to win, which is one of the reasons why Notre Dame looked to add a quarterback like Hartman in the transfer portal.

3. I’ll let everyone take a cold shower after I praised the job Michigan has done building their program.

Okay, now that everyone washed the stink away from #2, let’s get back to Notre Dame and some early developments in camp.

I’ve been very optimistic about the defense being better this season in year two under Al Golden and a lot of that optimism comes from his approach during the spring and in fall camp. This is from ISD’s Andrew Mentock’s piece on Golden back in the spring.

“I hadn’t seen all those offenses before,” he said. “I tried to catch up. It was hard because I got here so late.”

As a result, Notre Dame misappropriated valuable practice time last the spring — a mistake Golden won’t make twice.

“That was the first order of priority for me this offseason,” Golden said. “Don’t just pick the plays you’re going to run in the spring; look at the opponents first to see what we need to run. We probably practiced some things last spring we didn’t need to and as the season evolved, we needed X, Y, and Z. Now we’re practicing X, Y and Z, and these other things are gone.”

That’s one big adjustment Golden made for this season and the other is adjusting more to Notre Dame’s personnel. Also from Mentock’s piece back in March.

“I know the personnel better. I know what the strengths are and what they can do really well,” Golden said. “Just to have those veteran guys, when you’re strong up the middle, you have a chance to be strong. Our inside ‘backers and safeties are all veterans, and they can solve problems on the field, which is great.”

Golden re-emphasized all of this when he spoke at the end of last week in regards to trimming the menu of everything that they didn’t need.

“I just think we settled in. When I got back into it in January, really the first six weeks all I did was see what we could throw out and what we really need. And we threw a bunch out. I don’t think we added a ton but we threw a bunch out that really didn’t have application just because of the way the season evolved and how we’re playing. We also had the ability to look at who we’re playing. We had the whole spring to look at who we’re playing and say, what do we need menu-wise and let’s coach that and this other stuff, let’s remove and make it quiet and let the kids play with clarity.”

I know many Notre Dame fans have thought about what seems like an inevitable move back to the NFL for Golden at some point, but this is the kind of approach that will pay dividends for the Irish defense this season. It’s also a philosophical fit with Marcus Freeman’s approach as a defensive coordinator as well and pretty much the polar opposite of what Notre Dame had with Brian VanGorder. The philosophy with BVG always seemed to be about the players eventually learning everything they would need and there wasn’t a movement towards what would help veteran players play faster or younger players get on the field earlier. 

Golden and the staff doing this is good news for returning players who can master what they already know and even better news for young players who won’t be as overwhelmed with trying to learn everything.

Maybe last year asking Jaylen Sneed to know Rover in base and Will in nickel would be too much. It shouldn’t be the case now.

Someone who has been away from the college game and coming back to it isn’t an easy transition and I think it’s fair to say that it didn’t work out as well as anyone hoped it would for Notre Dame in year one under Golden.

It’s going to work a lot better in year two because of Golden's willingness to adjust this offseason.

4. Sometimes when a coach is praising a player in camp, I take it as them just pumping the tires for one of their guys. When I saw Golden singling out Josh Burnham when asked about the young Vyper candidates, I thought it was different.

“I know a guy like that is off the beaten path but (who) has made so much progress is Josh Burnham. Just physically and the commitment that he’s made”

Golden added:

”That is a physically great-looking kid. And now he’s in the 250s and he’s still lean and can run. He can play some end, he can play some Vyper.”

Then when Al Washington was asked about Burnham and Junior Tuihalamaka, I’d be lying if these comments didn’t get me excited about Burnham’s future.

“Love ‘em. Killers. Burnham No. 1 is he’s tough and dependable. He’s got all the athleticism but he’s incredibly tough. He may be out-weighed in matchups but (hits fist) he’ll come in and mix it up. I think he’s fundamentally developed. It’s a lot, it’s not like you can just come in and play D-Line. There’s a lot of detail that goes into it. I think he’s really worked it. He’s very talented.

Washington really said complimentary things about everybody and I loved hearing him talk about Tuihalamaka’s football IQ as well. The praise for those two hits a bit different to me.

I’ve been a big believer in Burnham’s talent since I watched him when Notre Dame first offered him a scholarship. Talent is one thing, but players who become great have to want to be great. These comments from Golden and Washington make it pretty obvious that Burnham fits that description.

I don’t know what kind of impact he’ll have this season and I’m not even sure what to expect from him when I watch him in practice next week, but when someone is already investing this much into becoming better this early in college, it typically means he’s going to make a significant impact at some point.

I’m very excited to see the player he develops into over the next few years.

5. Most of the focus early on camp for fans has been predictably about the battle for both guard spots on offense. As good as Hartman can be and as talented as Audric Estime and the rest of the backfield is, I think everyone has a pretty good understanding that the offense will only take that step into a higher tier if they get great offensive line play.

I know I wrote last week that it’s critical for Notre Dame to find their top group early on the offensive line and I stand by that. However, I do think it’s a good thing that Joe Rudolph is repping multiple players with the ones at guard early in camp because the only way to see if anyone deserves that spot is to give them the opportunity to earn it.

It’s still unclear who is going to win those starting jobs or even if they could split the position. It is very encouraging that Rocco Spindler has gone from long shot to contender since the start of spring and that he has progressed so much in just the past few months.

One of the things we had heard about Spindler prior to this year is that he wasn’t where he needed to be mentally in order to become a starter at Notre Dame. Everyone gets obsessed with the notion of moving a player at the point of attack being the most important aspect of playing offensive line, but that part doesn’t even come into the equation if a player isn’t assignment sound.

Zeke Correll’s comments on Spindler are the exact things I wanted to hear about his growth on the field. It’s as much mental as it is physical.

“Rocco’s taken some big steps,” said Correll. “Mentally he’s been a lot more dialed in. That’s helped him play with a little more clarity and it’s helped him play faster. Now he’s been able to use that strength that he has and really be able to use that strength and physicality that he has against guys versus a little earlier in the spring where he knew what he was doing but with maybe a little uncertainty, a little hesitation, versus now he’s playing a lot faster, which has helped him a lot.”

Notre Dame fans have been a bit spoiled with so many young offensive linemen shining early in their careers. Zack Martin, Ronnie Stanley, and Quenton Nelson all started in their second year in college. Joe Alt and Blake Fisher, in the same recruiting class as Spindler, were starters as freshmen.

Not everyone’s path is the same and while it would be a reach to suggest that Spindler is destined for greatness when he hasn’t even won a starting job yet, he’s clearly made significant progress as a player and proven that things can click for players at different times.

6. The ACC is going to die. It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when.

The so-called power players in the conference want out. They might not have a solution to get out at the moment, but they are clearly motivated to leave. Florida State had a meeting yesterday where they openly questioned the revenue distribution and talked about exploring their options in leaving the conference.

It’s no secret that others in the conference have looked at leaving and what they could do to get out of paying the full grant of rights fee to do so. With everything else that is happening with conference realignment at the moment, many of those schools are rightfully freaking out about getting left out or left behind in football.

Maybe the ACC gets a stay of execution if they start giving out more money to Florida State, Clemson, and whoever else drives ratings. But if those schools are getting more money for that, then Notre Dame’s pie should increase as well.

As Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson mentioned in this article abut Notre Dame’s dominance over the ACC, the Irish deliver ratings.

“Let’s recognize the reality of it,” Clawson said. “Part of our TV deal and the revenue we get is because of those home games with Notre Dame are baked into that. ... Yes, I think it’s a good arrangement. Notre Dame is a national brand. A lot of people watch them. Every time that we play them, there’s how many millions of eyes on ACC football?”

If the ACC renegotiates with FSU, Clemson, and others, they would have to do the same with Notre Dame if they want to continue this relationship. This is where the leverage card Notre Dame holds over everyone in realignment should be played.

Yahoo!’s Dan Wetzel reported yesterday that the B1G presidents are meeting to discuss possibly adding up to four more teams with Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal the candidates.

The Big Ten doesn’t want to add those teams. Not over Notre Dame. Sure, it’s them looking at an opportunity to consolidate more power and keep it away from other conferences, but there is no way that this isn’t also one of these messages to Notre Dame that the time might be now to jump in because it’s going to happen eventually.

It should also act as a signal to everyone else that Notre Dame could see it as the right time to make what feels like an inevitable move. Even if that’s not what Notre Dame would want, it’s getting to a point where it’s obvious that this is where it’s headed.

I get why many people who follow Notre Dame would hate this. I’m sure they hated the idea of aligning with the Big East or the ACC as well. Notre Dame did it because they didn’t really have a choice. They might not have a choice this time either.

There’s also the fact that ACC schools like North Carolina and Virginia are probably clenching their teeth thinking about the Big Ten adding more schools while they could end up in the “others receiving votes” portion of realignment roulette. It might not be enough for them to pay the big fee it would take to leave the ACC, but at what point do they feel like staying the course ends up leading to death by a thousand cuts?

FSU isn’t the only one who feels the way they do. They are just the first to be so public about it. All of these ACC schools are having private freakouts about this.

Notre Dame has leverage as the biggest domino left in realignment. I doubt they want to be the last one standing if things keep accelerating at the pace they are at now. Eventually it’s not going to be about what anyone at Notre Dame wants. It’s going to be about what they have to do.

Access to the College Football Playoff is something Jack Swarbrick pointed to as one of the main reasons that has allowed Notre Dame to remain independent, but I’m not sure the CFP expansion that was planned won’t blow up before they even start it in 2024.

The field of teams is supposed to be the selection committee's six highest-ranked conference champions and its next six highest-ranked teams. Well, one of the Power 5 conferences, the Pac-12, might not exist in 2024. Is everyone involved going to be fine with picking two teams from conferences like the AAC and Mountain West? The Big 12, who is trying to furiously add more teams from the mushy middle of the Power 5, is only slightly better than those conferences as well.

I’m not certain they will keep that same playoff expansion agreement intact if the Pac-12 is gone and if they do, it’s still only for two years (2024 and 2025). That seems like the logical point when the Big Ten and SEC could easily decide to break off on their own and cut out everyone else that they don’t want to invite to the party.

The ACC isn’t going to make it. Whether it’s a year or two or a few more than that, those schools will find a way out and will probably have to come to some sort of (significant) settlement for that to happen. Paying big money in the short term would be worth it if it meant long term survival, though.

Notre Dame will have to pay some sort of settlement for their grant of rights for their other sports that compete in the ACC, unless the ACC crumbles before then.

Realignment already took away historic rivalries. It’s about to blow up a conference that competed annually in the Rose Bowl, which is one of the greatest traditions the sport has. Notre Dame’s independence might not be next, but it feels like it will be gone soon.

I don’t want Notre Dame to join the Big Ten. I think they’ll have to. I’ll be surprised if they are able to continue to be independent in football for more than a couple of years.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3.5" x 11.5" Wall Mounted Bottle Opener