6 Thoughts on a Thursday

ESPN’s Bill Connelly announced that he’s going to release his spring SP+ rankings next week and included in that will be where teams rank with his returning production formula.

He already gave a sneak preview of the top-10 and everybody’s favorite CFP snub from last year is going to be number one.

While returning production is far from a perfect metric, it has been a good thing for a strong program to be ranked near the top. Last season’s top-10 featured Texas Tech (fourth), Texas A&M (sixth), and Oklahoma (10th). Those three made the College Football Playoff and were +4, +3, and +4 in the win column from the previous season.

Vanderbilt was eighth and though they didn’t make the CFP, they did have their first 10 win season in the history of the program.

I wouldn’t be willing to predict that a team like Maryland or South Carolina is going to make a CFP in 2026 because they are both in the top-five in returning production this year, but I feel pretty good about Notre Dame being first in returning production knowing that a lot of that production was responsible for Notre Dame being a national championship contender last fall. They finished fourth in F+ (combined FEI and SP+ rating) in 2025.

Florida State was first in returning production before the 2023 season from a team that finished 13th in F+ the previous year. They went 13-1 in ‘23. Michigan was fifth in returning production from a team that finished fourth in F+ the previous year. They won the national championship*.

I think those two examples are apt comparisons for Notre Dame this year. I would include Texas being ranked sixth in returning production after being 18th in F+ last season and Georgia being ranked eighth after being sixth in F+ in the same group at Notre Dame.

Someone could point to Clemson being first in returning production last season as an example to not be premature in predicting anything. They somehow turned all of that experience coming back into an embarrassing result. The counter argument is that no one in their right mind would trade Cade Klubnik as their quarterback for CJ Carr, Arch Manning, or Gunner Stockton. It’s not fair to compare these three teams to Clemson for that reason alone.

Notre Dame’s win total is 11.5 on FanDuel. Some of that is the schedule they’re playing. More of it is the talent they have on the roster. They have a lot of production returning, but it’s even more important that the individuals who account for that production are really, really good ball players.

2. Notre Dame plays 10 Power 4 teams next season. It’s not their fault that six of those teams are projected to not qualify for a bowl game in 2026.

I know their schedule is going to be a topic that gets brought up throughout the fall. I also know that they’ll be getting ripped for it despite them having no control over how many of these programs have fallen off a cliff.

Forget about the fact that the majority of these games are scheduled years in advance. Just think about how this schedule looked three years ago when many of these programs had different coaches.

Instead of it being year four of Ryan Walters at Purdue, it’s year two for Barry Odom. The Troy Taylor hire was a disaster at Stanford. So was the Jonathan Smith hire at Michigan State.

North Carolina went from Drake Maye in 2023 to Bill Belichick getting more publicity for his girlfriend than having success in college football. Jeff Hafley couldn’t cut it at Boston College, but three years later he is the head coach of the Miami Dolphins.

Three years ago Luke Fickell was put in the same tier as Jim Harbaugh, Ryan Day, and Kyle Whittingham as a head coach. Jimbo Fisher and Brian Kelly were in that same tier too. Welp.

I don’t think anyone would have predicted Fickell would be 17-21 going into his fourth year at Wisconsin.

No one thought that USC was going to no longer be on the schedule three years ago either. I bet Lincoln Riley wasn’t even thinking that because he won 11 games in his first season and he probably thought he was going to keep rolling over Notre Dame. Welp again. 

No one is going to give a program credit for what kind of teams they intended to schedule over who they ended up with, but I hope at least Notre Dame fans remember that this schedule should have looked a lot different.

Whether it’s bad luck or simply bad hires at these programs, it wasn’t supposed to be what it turned out to be. And who knows, maybe it won’t end up as bad once these teams start playing games this fall.

3. No one is excited when they hear about injuries that will keep players from competing in spring football. So when Notre Dame listed 11 who will be “out” for all of spring practice, there was bound to be people upset to see that.

Just about every injury that is keeping players from participating in any capacity was an injury that happened during the 2025 football season, though. The only exception is Charles Jagusah, who was injured off the field prior to the 2025. (More on him later)

There’s understandable disappointment about having only two scholarship running backs fully available, two linebackers being out (Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa and Ja’Kobe Clapper) and three others limited (Drayk Bowen, Kahnua Kia, and Madden Faraimo). But the list of injuries doesn’t reflect the realities of what the spring will look like.

I don’t want to just copy and paste the actual quotes from Notre Dame athletic trainer Rob Hunt or even post the Cliffnotes version for every single player. (I recommend reading the transcript here) The simplest way to look at it is that out of the 11 players who are out for spring, the only ones who Hunt did not give a timeline of being fully available in the summer were Jagusah, freshman DT Tiki Hola (suffered a late season ACL tear), and Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa. Hunt said KVA is hitting all of his recovery milestones and should be ready early in the fall, but is possible for training camp.

People are starving for Notre Dame football right now, especially after the unexpected early end to last season. I get why people want Wiilliams and Javian Osborne to be healthy right now to compete at running back. They want Kedren Young there too. They care about now and not that every single one of these backs is going to be healthy in the summer.

I understand that there are some who will catastrophize Leonard Moore or Jaden Greathouse even being mentioned as having tweaked anything despite Hunt declaring they will have a full spring. It’s exactly why Hunt said he debated on even sharing the information.

Greathouse was a full participant last spring. Will Pauling was not. That clearly had no impact when it came to who was healthy when it mattered during the season.

Riley Leonard was limited during the spring when he first arrived at Notre Dame in 2024. Carson Beck didn’t practice in the spring at Miami last year. It didn’t stop either team from making the national championship game.

Unless someone is newly injured and it impacts their timeline to get ready for the season, I just don’t see it as something to get too upset about when only two positions are affected by injuries during the spring.

4. When Loren Landow has an opportunity to meet with the media, it’s impossible to ask specifics on every player. I was glad that Landow had a chance to talk about Loghan Thomas, though, because he’s someone that has been written off to a certain extent because of his struggle to add weight.

“That’s a good question and if she were here I’d have Alexa Appleman handle that one. That’s someone we’ve discussed and looked at strategies to help with that. The great thing from my room is he’s strong, he’s explosive, he has all the burst, he has all the strength. Some guys just struggle to put on weight at different times in their careers.”

There’s visual evidence that backs up that Thomas’ weight doesn’t have anything to do with his work ethic. He’s second from the left in the picture and even if he’s the smallest guy on the defensive line, the dude is shredded.

Romello Height is an example of an edge defender who struggled to add weight, but he gradually grew into an every down player. Height was 214 in his second year at Auburn. He transferred to USC and was under 230 there. He played the last two seasons under 240 at Georgia Tech and Texas Tech where he developed into one of the better pass rushers in the country.

He wins with quickness and is projected to be a day two pick in the NFL Draft by some even despite his size. That’s the kind of player Thomas should model himself after and frankly that might be the only kind of player he can be at his size.

He hasn’t been talked about as a rotation player. Maybe that’s a bit unfair, but if he surprises people this spring it will be because he’s quick and relentless.

5. Marcus Freeman spoke about adding some walk-ons at the running back position to help them practice this spring with the numbers being down at the position. He also talked about being able to do more team drills (11 on 11, 7 on 7, inside run) during spring because they have done more individual stuff this offseason because they had eight weeks of “football school”.

“Maybe we have a guy that might not be competing to be our starting running back carrying the ball. We can still evaluate and really improve those guys that we'll be blocking for the running back. The guys who are healthy, they'll get plenty of opportunities, but we can't kill them either, right? We can't put so much load on those guys that they have diminishing returns. We have to be able to spread the workload. One of the important things for us to do is to get a couple guys at least could give us reps so we can practice and develop the depth of our team.”

I think many people might not be aware that there are certain periods during a football practice that aren’t all that important to a specific position. A lot of times one position group is there participating as a service to other units. Inside run is a perfect example.

Sure, the backs work on reads, footwork, and things of that nature doing inside run drills (or 9 on 7). But the back is the second least important position there next to the quarterback handing the ball off. That drill is about blocking up front first on offense. It’s about defeating blocks by the front on defense. It’s about proper run fits and holding your gap. Those things are the most important. The running back’s job there isn’t nearly as important as when they are doing 11 on 11.

Even with 7 on 7 or one on one pass routes, Hunt specifically mentioned that Williams should be available to take part in that so the load won’t be as big for Nolan James and Jonaz Walton.

It’s a lot more of an issue to not have the numbers at receiver, defensive back, or on either side of the line of scrimmage when it comes to being able to put together a full practice for a football team. Those positions have more than enough bodies to get in a lot of work this spring.

6. Disheartening might be the only way to describe the news about Charles Jagusah having to go through a fifth surgery for an injury that people had hoped would see him return at some point during the 2025 season. It’s been over eight months since he broke his humerus and he hasn’t even been able to practice yet. Hunt said there’s a lot more time to put in for him as well with his rehab.

I know Hunt said he’s optimistic, but with no set timetable and what still seems like a long road ahead, I couldn’t help but hear the uncertainty of Jagusah’s situation and not feel any kind of initial optimism. 

I think it would be unfair to even suggest that he will go back to play and be the same guy he was at the end of the 2024 season because of not only the injury, but the time off from playing football. He’s going into year four and has played 182 snaps as an offensive lineman. No matter how naturally talented a player is, I don’t think anyone walks back onto the field and can pick up where they left off having that much time off.

I spoke to someone much more informed about this kind of scenario than me (my wife is a physiotherapist for Volleyball Canada). She shared the same sentiment with me that Hunt shared with everyone. There is no reason to think he won’t play football again. It just may take longer than anyone wanted it to be to get there. I'm certainly not expecting him to be this plug and play All-American when it happens, but just getting back would be a win and then we can see what happens from there.

The good news is that he should be able to gain extra eligibility from the NCAA based on his injury history. He might need a longer runway to get back to where he was and he should have that.

Shaun Crawford and Drue Tranquill were both players who at one time appeared to be doomed by injuries. Crawford got to finish his career playing at Notre Dame and Tranquill is about to play his eighth season in the NFL. While I’m going to be realistic about expectations for Jagusah, I’m not going to stop rooting for him to get back on the field because it will be a great story when it happens.

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