6 Thoughts on a Thursday
The offseason is often a time for reflection. We look forward to the next season and spring ball, but we also look back at what happened the previous year or even further. That’s what led me to write about Hits and Misses in recruiting the last couple of weeks.
As I have been looking back and examining which players lived up to or exceeded expectations and which ones did not, it has made me think a lot more about the players that missed and why they did.
Each individual has a different story. Some might have been misevaluated. Others struggled because of academics. Some had injuries and never fully recovered. Others might have been a poor culture fit for the program and school from the start. It always fascinates me to think about what could have been done in hindsight that might have changed their fortunes.
I think most would have ended up missing no matter if things were done differently or not. But there has to be at least a few that could have ended up as good players if everyone involved knew then what they know now.
The ones who underachieved due to academics, injury, or even culture fit aren’t the ones that interest me the most, though. It’s the really good ones, or even the great ones, that might have had even more success if they played a different role or were playing in a different scheme.
I know most will think this has to Brian VanGorder and blame him for someone like Nyles Morgan not living up to the hype, but I’m not talking about BVG specifically. There are a bunch of individual cases that I wonder about if things were slightly different.
Isaac Rochell is the first player that I think about. It’s not that he didn’t have a solid career. Anyone who starts for three seasons, is a captain, and was an NFL Draft pick was not a slouch. It may be that he completely fulfilled his potential while at Notre Dame. But I wonder if things could have been different for him if would have played in 3-4 defense, the scheme he was recruited to play in out of high school. I think that was a better fit for him than playing end in a 4-3, regardless if it was in BVG’s defense or another.
Even in a 4-3, I think his best position might have been inside as a 3-technique defensive tackle. Unfortunately he had Sheldon Day in that spot for two years and the Irish didn’t have the depth at end to move him inside as a senior. If he did move there in 2016, I think there’s a better chance he could have been great rather than good at end.
What if the coaches figured out that CJ Prosise was a better fit at running back a year sooner? Necessity is the mother of invention and Prosise never would have had his shot at running the ball if not for a need at the position heading into the 2015 season. But let's just say that they realized he was too talented not touch the ball more and moved him earlier. Who knows, maybe they even contemplated it before the situation at running back in '15. What he did in his one year as a runner definitely makes me think about what he could have done in 2014 if they have the foresight to move him sooner.
Those are just two that come to mind, but there are several other questions I wonder about with players and how it would have impacted their Notre Dame career. Everything from having another left tackle in place so Mike McGlinchey could have stayed on the right side to Jaylon Smith being utilized as a pass rusher, I can't help but think about how much of a difference some changes could have made when it came to their individual success.
And ultimately, it’s not just about a specific player, but how that individual's success could have affected the success of the program overall. Could have any of these things made Notre Dame win more games if they happened? We’ll never truly know, but I’ll always wonder.
2. While I’m still mulling on what-ifs, the strength and conditioning aspect of blue-chip recruits not doing as well as expected has been brought up a few times in recent comments. It’s a valid point to bring up when you realize how deficient the Irish were in that department for too long.
Someone like Quenton Nelson came into the program as a monster and was bench pressing 225 at a level that would have already impressed people at the NFL Combine. For the players who didn’t come in as ready-made or as self motivated as Nelson in the weight room, they clearly suffered in terms of physical development.
Maybe a player like Hunter Bivin was always destined to be a career backup. But he would be someone that I wonder what would have happened if he was in a better strength and conditioning program over his first four years at Notre Dame. I think of him and mostly others in that 2013 offensive line class that the Irish signed that was so highly touted at the time. Five 4-star prospects were brought in from that class. For all of the success Harry Hiestand had developing players into future NFL Draft picks, McGlinchey is the only one from that class that will be picked by an NFL team.
Bivin, Colin McGovern, John Montelus, and Steve Elmer might have all turned out how they were supposed to. Perhaps they were overrated as recruits or maybe they didn’t have the right mindset to be great at the college level. I will always wonder about how a different strength and conditioning approach might have changed things for them, though.
No way the Irish would have gone five for five on the O-line in that class in terms of impact players. However, the batting average may have been higher if the S&C that is in place now was in place back then.
3. I think it’s fair to say that Mike Elston has been a polarizing figure for Notre Dame fans during his time on staff. Whether it’s recruiting players or developing them once they get to campus, there have been different instances where fans have praised or been highly critical him.
I don’t think there is any debate right now that Elston needs to be praised for his recent work on the field and in recruiting. He moved back to the defensive line from coaching linebackers the previous two seasons and did a great job with an unproven group.
The player who stands out the most from that group is Jerry Tillery. The Irish needed him to make a leap with his play and he did that and then some under Elston. It can’t be denied that Tillery would not be back for his senior season without Elston as well.
Flipping it over to recruiting and things are rolling on the defensive line better than they have been in a long time. He said on signing day that he felt the 2019 D-line class would be the best one they have signed at Notre Dame and it looks like he might be spot on with that assessment. With stud defensive tackle Jacob Lacey and recently committed Hunter Spears joining him, things are looking up on the interior. There are many other top guys they are in heavily in the mix with as well and that wouldn’t be the case without the work of Elston.
I didn’t think Elston was the right choice for defensive coordinator, but I would have understood if he was a bit salty about being passed over for the job twice. It hasn’t seemed to affect him at all, though. He is winning on the recruiting trail and winning with his recruitment of Tillery to stay another season too. People can save the criticism for another time. Right now he deserves credit for the job he is doing with the defensive line.
4. The defensive line class does appear to be on pace to be the best they have signed since Kelly took over. We’ll see if it all goes down the way that most assume it will.
Even if it does, I’m not sure this will end up as the best class that Kelly has signed. It’s not that easy to sign a top-five recruiting class and this would have to finish two or three to be better than the one they brought in for 2013.
That class had nineteen players that had a four-star ranking or better. Two of those players were five-star prospects.
It’s almost impossible to sign a class that finishes near the top without multiple-five star prospects on board. So in order for that to happen, the Irish would have to sign at least two or three recruits that could end up as 5-star prospects next February. Right now that would mean they end up landing players like defensive end Zach Harrison, defensive tackle Faatui Tuitele, tight end Hudson Henry, linebacker Brandon Smith, or others similar to them.
It could happen. I just wouldn’t bet it’s likely to happen as of today.
Tomorrow is another story. We’ll see where things progress over the spring and summer. Then we’ll have a much better idea if landing multiple five-star prospects is a legitimate possibility.
5. I think ESPN made a terrific move when they decided to use Kirk Herbstreit on the NFL Draft now that Jon Gruden left to coach the Oakland Raiders. It never made sense to have Gruden on to talk about college players he clearly had not watched as much as many others have. I know he did his Quarterback Camp stuff and spent a lot of time with them, but he didn’t know the other prospects at other positions nearly as well.
To me, the best part of the NBA Draft telecast is Jay Bilas. He spent the time watching all of those college basketball players and he knows their games better because of that. Them bringing on Herbstreit for this is very similar. I’m looking forward to see how he does with former NFL personnel executive Louis Riddick adding insight as well.
Herbstreit is known for having close relationships with a lot of college head coaches. He’ll be able to mine information from those sources to give a deeper perspective on the players as well. This was a long overdue move to get someone with a college football background to be a bigger part of their draft coverage. They spend all that money on talent that covers the college game. It’s great to see them finally decide to utilize it for this event.
6. Mike reported on the board that spring ball is getting started in the second week of March. That means it’s approaching quickly and I’m sure most of you are like me in that it can’t come soon enough. I’m excited to see how things go on both sides of the ball and I know all eyes will be on the quarterback position.
There is no doubt that is where a large part of the focus will be. With that, it’s easy to forget about other players. Especially ones like Nick Watkins who aren’t as hyped up as guys who emerged as stars like Te’Von Coney or Julian Love.
Watkins had a good season for most of the year, but was dealing with an injury near the end of the season. Troy Pride ended up playing a lot of snaps in Watkins’ place down the stretch and Pride played well.
The easy thing to do is project that Pride is ascending as a third year player and should hold down the starting spot opposite Love at corner. With Watkins entering his fifth year, he may have to fight it out to stay in the mix with Shaun Crawford and early enrollee Houston Griffith potentially pushing for time there too.
I really don’t know where things will stand by the end of spring with Watkins, but he needs to have a really strong spring to show he’s the player he looked like early last season. I was very encouraged by his play then and think it’s a good thing that Pride and others will be pushing him for time.
Don’t count him out to get that starting gig back heading into the summer. And even if he doesn’t, it’s not a bad thing because it means the cornerback position is going to be deeper and more talented than it’s been in awhile at Notre Dame.