6 Thoughts on a Thursday

The worst time of the year in college football is when spring practice is over and the NFL Draft has come and gone. That’s when people who are paid to dish out hot takes start firing them off because they don’t have any real news worth talking about.

It’s “clickbait” season, which means there will be unnecessary rankings, bold predictions, and uniformed talking heads who hype up players who they know very little about. One prominent hot take artist was praising Notre Dame’s chances to win a championship this season, but did it with a graphic of key returners beside him that had Eli Raridon listed.

Mistakes happen, but there is nothing that causes a college football generalist to lose credibility quite like not knowing about a team who he is complimenting or dissing.

It’s why I appreciate data driven articles about college football at this time of year. I don’t really care about an updated way-too-early top-25 ranking after spring ball. Give me something useful and not based on how so and so looked during a spring game.

This piece from CBS Sports’ Cody Nagel is exactly the kind of thing I like to check out during the slow time of the offseason. He compiled returning snap percentages for all FBS teams from last season and it’s an interesting data point to add to Bill Connelly’s returning production rankings because this isn’t weighted by position and doesn’t include transfers.

The Irish are first in returning snap percentage just like they were first in returning production. They are 17th in returning snap percentage on offense and second in returning snap percentage on defense. These points in particular stand out in regards to both sides of the ball.

For the offense:

Only seven teams return at least 70% of their snaps at both quarterback and along the offensive line: Army, Liberty, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh and USC.

And for the defense:

Notre Dame and BYU are the only two programs in the country to return at least 60% of their snaps across all three position groups, giving them the most complete defensive continuity entering 2026.

Seems good!

In the new world of college football with NIL dollars and transfer portal movement having a significant impact on wins and losses, anyone could easily argue that this kind of thing isn’t as important as it used to be. There is some truth to that.

On the other hand, no one could argue that returning and retaining this much experience within a program isn’t a very good thing for a team that won 10 straight games and finished fourth in F+ (combined FEI and SP+ rating) last season. Throw this data in with the rest of the pile of reasons why the hype around Notre Dame is valid.

It’s the opposite of a hot take for anyone to predict big things for the program this season.

2. This was another interesting nugget from those percentages:

Five of the six teams with the best FanDuel Sportsbook odds to win this year's national title rank among the top 15 nationally in returning overall snap percentage.

Returning champion Indiana is the one of the six not in the top-15 in returning snap percentage. Ohio State, Texas, Oregon, and Georgia are the others in the top-15 with Notre Dame. Texas is the only one of those six programs that didn’t finish in the top-six in F+ last season.

When considering what these teams are returning from last year’s roster and who they’ve added through the transfer portal, it’s understandable why all of these programs have realistic expectations of winning a national championship.

Notre Dame, Ohio State, Georgia, and Oregon all have returning starters at quarterback who finished in the top-18 in ESPN’s QBR.

Arch Manning is returning as the starter for Texas and finished 34th in QBR. Michigan true freshman Bryce Underwood finished above him. Welp. It goes without saying that Manning still has a lot to prove even though he’s still being projected by many as the top pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.

However, there is evidence that suggests he can be one of the top quarterbacks in the country in 2026. He did play at a much higher level in the final five games and this graphic from Parker Fleming shows the jump he made in terms of his QBR.

Indiana fans will surely be fine if they don’t go back to back considering the players they lost and the fact that they couldn't even win a national championship in their wildest dreams before Curt Cignetti. But these other five programs have what they believe are championship-level rosters and championship-level quarterbacks.

Four of them are going to end up being disappointed.

3. That list doesn’t include Miami and Texas A&M. Internally, I’m sure they both feel like they broke down the door when they made the CFP last season. A&M has Marcel Reed returning at quarterback too (15th in QBR) and Miami paid huge money to lure quarterback Darian Mensah (14th) away from Duke.

What's the big difference between those teams last season compared to now? It’s up front. Last year they had experienced offensive lines coming back and those were the backbone of their respective offenses.

Texas A&M just had four offensive linemen selected in the NFL Draft and only returned 25% (99th) of their offensive line snaps from last season. Miami had three offensive linemen drafted and only returned 24% (104th) of their snaps on the offensive line from last season.

Those teams still have a lot of talent, but winning and losing games against CFP teams often comes down to who has the edge at the line of scrimmage. I think it’s going to be difficult for them to duplicate the success they had in 2025 because of that.

Alabama has to replace Ty Simpson at quarterback and they’re only bringing back 15% (120th) of their snaps on the O-line and 30% (82nd) on their defensive line. Good luck to Kalen DeBoer because he’s not exactly set up well to quiet his critics this fall.

Here’s where other contenders stand with returning snap percentage up at the line of scrimmage:

Notre Dame

OL 71% (11th)

DL 60% (19th)

Ohio State

OL 82% (2nd)

DL 49% (37th)

Georgia

OL 61% (25th)

DL 78% (2nd)

Oregon

OL 44% (57th)

DL 73% (4th)

Texas

OL 52% (40th)

DL 66% (8th)

Indiana

OL 60% (29th)

DL 35% (68th)

Notre Dame being the only team in the top-20 on both sides of the ball is a great thing, but all of these teams are in pretty good shape up front with who's returning and with the help they’ve added who are not included in these numbers. Freeman has preached how his program is driven by the offensive and defensive lines. This is the strongest those two groups have been since he arrived in South Bend.

4. Chris Burgess’ nine snaps were not a big part of those returning percentages for the D-line. That doesn’t mean he can’t carve out a role with the defensive line this fall, but based on the depth at defensive tackle and how he looked this spring, he has some work to do to earn a spot in the rotation.

He’s making the transition from defensive end to defensive tackle. This is what defensive line coach Charlie Partridge had to say about Burgess’ progress with the move inside:

“He's going through the adjustment. Things inside happen much faster. The run blocks are on you much quicker. Everything that happens from a pass rush standpoint happens after one step instead of three. He's going through some of those adjustments. Some reps look really good. Some reps still need work.

“A lot of it right now is Burg just learning how to fight pressure within different styles of double teams. He's working his tail off. He's doing a nice job. He's getting better. Those are some of the growing pains that he's going through.”

What Partridge said is giving me flashbacks of when I saw my name at defensive tackle on the depth chart after my first semester in college. I was around 240 at the time. It was a lot different than Burgess where he arrived on campus at 270 pounds and was already on his way to moving to defensive tackle.

A year earlier I had been playing linebacker in high school. My blender then became my best friend with me having to down as many protein shakes as I could drink. That wasn’t fun and neither was having to hold up the point of attack against double teams.

Any change of position can take time, but there is no position change that is as physically challenging as having to play defensive tackle. It was obvious from when I watched Burgess, just like Partridge said, that he wasn’t quite comfortable yet with the switch when it came to his overall pad level and recognizing blocks.

It’s also obvious that he’s got some great tools to work with. Even at 300 pounds, he still has twitch and flexibility that look closer to an edge than an interior player.

I don’t believe that things just click one day for a player. Change comes with repetition and experience, but some guys can adjust faster than others. I wanted to specifically bring up Burgess here because a lot of progress can be made during the summer and fall. Even if hasn’t broken through into the rotation by the end of August, there are players who end up making a move during the season.

A lot of people were hoping for more hype around him by the end of spring ball, but don’t count him or anyone else out from making noise in the fall because big things didn’t happen in April.

5. In the same vein, here’s a list of players who were either limited or out for most of Notre Dame’s spring ball: Ashton Craig, Jaden Greathouse, Quincy Porter, Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, Madden Faraimo, Jason Onye, Drayk Bowen, Dallas Golden, and Khary Adams. That doesn’t include CB DJ McKinney and TE Ian Premer who weren’t enrolled yet.

There could be half a dozen starters or more in that group. One could argue that the spring wasn’t close to what we’ll see from Notre Dame as a team this season without that group.

The Irish didn’t lack internal competition during the spring. It’s only going to ramp up once most of these players are healthy.

Our guy Matt Freeman wrote about players trending up on offense and defense after the spring. I don’t think it’s fair to include returning starters like Craig, Greathouse, Onye, KVA, or Bowen as players trending up even if they look great in August. The others like Porter, Faraimo, Golden, Adams, McKinney, and Premer are a pretty solid list of candidates who we could be talking about a lot in August.

6. Proclaiming anything is the “best ever” when describing something about Notre Dame football always feels hyperbolic. There have been so many great players, great teams, and great eras that comparing them all can’t be properly done.

When I hear people say that Notre Dame might land their best defensive line class ever, I wonder how many people truly know about players that played for Ara, Devine, or even Holtz. Is it even fair to compare recruiting now to what it looked like 30 or 40 years ago?

The game has changed. Recruiting has changed. I’m just not sure about anything being labeled the best ever because it feels impossible to compare.

If we’re only talking about the best defensive line classes of the internet era of recruiting, the ones that immediately come to mind are 2011 (Aaron Lynch, Stephon Tuitt, Ishaq Williams, and Troy Niklas), 2016 (Daelin Hayes, Khalid Kareem, Julian Okwara, and Ade Ogundeji), and the one they just signed in 2026 (Rodney Dunham, Ebenezer Ewatade, Elijah Golden, and Tiki Hola).

And yes, Niklas switched to offense, Williams was a disappointment, and Lynch shined brightly for one year before transferring, but it was correctly seen as an elite group of prospects when they signed.

The Irish just landed their first defensive line commit of the 2027 cycle in Aidan O'Neil‍. He’s a top-100 level prospect who I gave a grade of 94, so that’s a great start.

They have to close with some of their other top targets, but they are in a great position for others like David Folorunsho‍, Jackson Vaughn‍, Marcus Fakatou‍, Abraham Sesay‍, and Brayden Parks‍. I have grades of 99, 95, 97, 96, and 93 for those players. If they end up signing three of those five along with O’Neil, that’s a lights out class. If they sign four or five along with O’Neil, then I would feel comfortable comparing it to the best defensive line classes that any program has signed in the last decade.

It will all get revisited if things turn out the way Notre Dame wants it to, but it’s yet another example of Freeman being sincere with his messaging. Winning the line of scrimmage is a priority and they are on their way to leveling up on the defensive line.

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